In the past three months (from late January to late April 2026), China's polyester market has experienced a sharp fluctuation dominated by a "stable start, rapid surge in the middle and mild adjustment later", driven by geopolitical conflicts, changes in raw material costs, supply-demand pattern adjustments and other multiple factors. The price of polyester products represented by polyester filament yarn (PFY) and polyester staple fiber (PSF) has risen significantly overall, breaking through the previous consolidation range, and the market pattern has undergone obvious changes. This article will comprehensively analyze the price trend of China's polyester market in the past three months, explore the core driving factors, and look forward to the future market trend.

1. Overview of Polyester Price Changes in the Past Three Months

The past three months have witnessed a distinct phased trend in China's polyester prices, which can be divided into three stages: stable operation in late January to February, rapid surge in March, and mild adjustment in early to mid-April.

In late January to February 2026, China's polyester market was in a stable and consolidated state. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate of downstream weaving enterprises declined seasonally, and the demand for polyester was relatively weak. At this stage, the international crude oil price hovered around 75 US dollars per barrel, and the prices of upstream raw materials such as PTA and MEG remained stable, providing limited cost support for polyester. During this period, the price of polyester filament yarn (POY 150D/48F) was basically maintained between 7000-7200 yuan per ton, and the price of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) fluctuated around 6800-7000 yuan per ton. The market transaction was relatively light, and most enterprises mainly digested inventory, with no obvious upward or downward momentum.

Since March 2026, China's polyester prices have ushered in a "spike" market. With the sudden escalation of the US-Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transportation channel, was blocked, triggering market concerns about the interruption of global oil supply. The international Brent crude oil price soared from around 75 US dollars per barrel to a high of 119.5 US dollars per barrel, a record high in nearly three years, and then stabilized in the range of 95-103 US dollars per barrel, with an increase of more than 30%. Driven by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the prices of upstream PTA and MEG, the core raw materials of polyester, rose sharply. Among them, the monthly increase of PTA reached 39.10%, and the price rose to 6771.43 yuan per ton; the CFR China MEG price climbed to around 635 US dollars per ton, with a week-on-week increase of about 3.25%. Under the strong cost drive, the prices of polyester products rose rapidly. The price of polyester filament yarn (POY 150D/48F) soared from 7000 yuan per ton to 9600 yuan per ton, an increase of nearly 40%; the price of polyester filament yarn (FDY 150D/96F) rose from 7180 yuan per ton to 9300 yuan per ton, an increase of more than 29%. However, the sharp rise in prices also quickly suppressed downstream demand, and the polyester production and sales rate began to decline in mid-March, with inventory gradually piling up.

In early to mid-April 2026, China's polyester prices entered a mild adjustment stage. As the market gradually digested the impact of geopolitical conflicts and the actual oil supply interruption was lower than expected, the international crude oil price fell from a high level, and the cost support for polyester weakened. At the same time, the downstream weaving enterprises were resistant to high-priced raw materials, and the procurement was mainly based on rigid demand, which further restricted the upward space of polyester prices. During this period, the prices of major polyester products fell slightly, but still remained at a high level compared with the beginning of the year. By mid-April, the price of polyester filament yarn (POY 150D/48F) was adjusted to around 9200-9400 yuan per ton, and the price of polyester staple fiber was maintained at around 8800-9000 yuan per ton.

2. Core Driving Factors of Polyester Price Changes

2.1 Geopolitical Conflicts Driven by Cost Surge
The most critical factor affecting the polyester price in the past three months is the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Since March, the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has led to the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about 20% of global oil supply, triggering a sharp rise in international crude oil prices. As polyester is a petrochemical product, its production process is closely linked to crude oil. The surge in crude oil prices has directly pushed up the production costs of upstream raw materials such as PX, PTA and MEG, forming a strong cost support for polyester prices.
In addition, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) declared force majeure on MEG and other products at the end of March, leading to a significant decline in the operating rate of overseas MEG plants and further tightening the global MEG supply pattern. As the Middle East accounts for nearly 60% of China's MEG imports, the supply disruption of major overseas suppliers has led to a sharp decline in China's MEG imports in April, which has further promoted the rise of MEG prices and indirectly boosted the increase of polyester prices.

2.2 Supply-Side Tightening Provides Support
On the supply side, the polyester industry has maintained a relatively tight pattern in the past three months. In terms of upstream raw materials, the PTA industry entered a period of production capacity vacuum in 2026, with no new capacity put into operation, and many sets of PTA plants such as Yisheng New Materials and Hengli announced maintenance plans, leading to a low operating rate of the PTA industry in the first quarter. For MEG, in addition to the impact of overseas force majeure, domestic MEG plants also had maintenance plans in the first quarter, and the overall industry operating rate remained around 67%, resulting in tight supply.
In terms of polyester itself, affected by the rise in raw material prices and the pressure of cost inversion, some small and medium-sized polyester enterprises have reduced their operating rates, while large enterprises have maintained full-load production but are cautious in production scheduling. The overall supply of polyester is relatively tight, which provides a certain support for the stability of prices.

2.3 Demand-Side Fluctuations Restrict Price Rise
The demand side has shown a "seasonal recovery but insufficient momentum" trend in the past three months, which has become an important factor restricting the continuous rise of polyester prices. In late January to February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, downstream weaving enterprises stopped production for holidays, and the demand for polyester was in the off-season, with weak market transactions. In March, with the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday, the demand for polyester had a certain recovery, especially the demand for light and thin fabrics for spring and summer increased, which once promoted the rise of polyester prices. However, the sharp rise in polyester prices in March exceeded the cost-bearing capacity of downstream enterprises. Middle-stream weaving enterprises fell into the dilemma of "loss when starting up" because the increase in grey fabric prices was far behind the increase in raw material prices. Many weaving enterprises reduced their operating rates or adjusted their product structure, reducing the purchase of low-value-added polyester fabrics and turning to high-value-added products. Downstream clothing enterprises were in a wait-and-see state, digesting low-cost inventory and slowing down the purchase of new raw materials, resulting in a decline in the polyester production and sales rate and a backlog of inventory, which inhibited the further rise of prices. According to customs data, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 17.6% year-on-year in January-February 2026, but the orders after the Spring Festival were average, and the demand support was insufficient.

3. Impact of Price Changes on the Industry Chain

The sharp fluctuation of polyester prices in the past three months has had a profound impact on the entire polyester industry chain, showing a obvious pattern of "differentiation between upstream and downstream".
For upstream enterprises, relying on the "cost plus" model, enterprises in the crude oil, PTA, MEG and other links have benefited significantly from the price rise, with sufficient orders in hand and increased profits. For example, major PTA and MEG producers have maintained stable operating rates, and their profit space has been effectively expanded with the rise of product prices. In addition, some international enterprises such as Teijin Frontier have raised the price of polyester fiber products by 20% or more due to the rise in raw material and energy costs, to transfer the cost pressure.
For middle-stream polyester and weaving enterprises, they have become the "sandwich layer" of cost pressure. Polyester enterprises are facing the dual pressure of rising raw material costs and weak downstream demand. Some enterprises have fallen into the predicament of cost inversion, especially polyester chips and polyester staple fiber enterprises, which have even suffered losses. Weaving enterprises are more pressured. Due to the difficulty in transferring the rising cost to the downstream, the profit space is continuously compressed, and some enterprises have to reduce production or suspend production to avoid losses.
For downstream terminal enterprises such as clothing and home textiles, the impact of polyester price rise has not yet been fully transmitted. At present, most enterprises use low-cost raw material inventory to produce, so the terminal product prices have not yet shown a significant rise. However, with the gradual consumption of inventory, if the polyester price remains high, the terminal product prices are expected to rise in the second quarter, especially functional clothing such as sun protection clothing and outdoor clothing with high polyester content, whose price increase may exceed 15%.

4. Future Outlook for Polyester Prices

Looking forward to the next period, China's polyester market will continue to be in a game pattern between "cost support" and "demand constraint", and the price will maintain high volatility, with the main trend depending on the changes of geopolitical situation and supply-demand pattern. In terms of cost, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still the biggest variable. If the US-Iran conflict continues and the Strait of Hormuz shipping is still blocked, the international crude oil price is expected to remain high, and the prices of PTA and MEG will continue to be supported, which will provide strong cost support for polyester prices. According to the forecast of Macquarie Group, if the conflict continues until the end of June, the Brent crude oil price may soar to 200 US dollars per barrel; even if the tension eases, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 will still be as high as 89.28 US dollars per barrel, which will continue to support the cost of the polyester industry. In addition, the centralized maintenance of PX and PTA plants in the second quarter will further tighten the supply of raw materials and support the price stability. In terms of demand, with the arrival of the traditional peak season of the textile industry, the demand for polyester is expected to have a certain recovery, especially the demand for summer fabrics will gradually increase, which will provide some support for polyester prices. However, it should be noted that the downstream enterprises are still resistant to high-priced raw materials, and the inventory level of weaving enterprises is relatively high. The intensity of replenishment may be limited, which will restrict the upward space of prices. In addition, the global economic recovery is weak, and the export demand for textile and clothing may face uncertainty, which will also have a certain impact on the demand for polyester.
Comprehensively judging, China's polyester prices will maintain a high volatility pattern in the short term. The price may have a slight callback with the weakening of cost support, but the overall level will remain higher than the same period last year. It is necessary to focus on the changes of geopolitical situation, the operation of upstream raw material plants, and the recovery of downstream demand. For enterprises in the industry chain, they should pay close attention to market changes, reasonably arrange production and inventory, and respond to price fluctuations actively.